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Overlapped grouping periodogram test for detecting multiple hidden periodicities in mixed spectra

2011· article· en· W1492250433 on OpenAlex

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

affAt least one author lists a Canadian institution in the pinned OpenAlex snapshot.

Bibliographic record

VenueJournal of Time Series Analysis · 2011
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEconomics, Econometrics and Finance
TopicComplex Systems and Time Series Analysis
Canadian institutionsYork UniversityEnvironment and Climate Change Canada
FundersScience and Technology Directorate
KeywordsMathematicsStatisticTest statisticSeries (stratigraphy)StatisticsSunspotWhite noiseInterval (graph theory)Noise (video)Monte Carlo methodPeriodogramStatistical hypothesis testingAlgorithmArtificial intelligenceComputer sciencePhysicsCombinatorics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Hidden periodicity is a featured phenomenon in many area of the real world, for example, in astronomy and climatology. Under white noise assumption, the problem of searching for hidden periodicity has been studied extensively in the literature. However, under mixed spectra, especially when compound periodicities are involved, most of the existing methods lose their efficiencies. An overlapped grouping periodogram (OGP) test is proposed in this paper to detect multiple hidden periodicities in mixed spectra. Its test statistic is proven to converge to Fisher's g‐statistic almost surely. Difficulties arising from the implementation of the OGP test are tackled and an empirical data‐adaptive confidence interval for grouping parameter selection is constructed when red noise is assumed. The large sample properties of the proposed OGP test are studied via Monte Carlo simulations, and the power of the test is further illustrated by applying it to the reanalysis of the monthly international sunspot series. By employing the new method, a 10‐year cycle and a 11‐year cycle are detected respectively in the monthly international sunspot series. These two cycles combined to form a super cycle with a period of about 110 years for the updated estimate to the solar cycle. The goodness of the OGP fit to the sunspot series is examined.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.001
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMeta-epidemiology (narrow), Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.158
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.001
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0020.001
Bibliometrics0.0020.002
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.001
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0020.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.031
GPT teacher head0.205
Teacher spread0.174 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it