Northern Hemisphere blocking frequency and duration in the CMIP5 models
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Northern Hemisphere (NH) blocking climatology is examined using a subset of climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Both historical and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 integrations are analyzed to evaluate the performance of the CMIP5 models and to identify possible changes in NH blocking frequency and duration in a warmer climate. Comparison with reanalysis data reveals that CMIP5 models can reproduce the NH blocking climatology reasonably well, although the frequency of Euro‐Atlantic blockings, particularly those with relatively short duration, is significantly underestimated during the cold season. In most models, overestimation of the Pacific blocking frequency is also evident for all durations throughout the year. In comparison to historical integrations, RCP 8.5 integrations show significant decreases in blocking frequency over both the North Pacific and north Atlantic regions, with a hint of increasing blocking frequency over western Russia. However, there is no noticeable change in the duration of individual blocking events for all durations.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it