Harper vs. History: Dynasties and Interludes in Canadian Electoral Politics
Bibliographic record
Abstract
With three consecutive election victories and a parliamentary majority, Stephen Harper’s Conservatives appear well positioned to retain power in Ottawa for some time. The most recent (2011) victory raises the prospect of a “Harper dynasty.” However, history shows us that only a few Canadian political leaders have been able to establish dynasties that extended over a period of several elections, and that the feat was never easy to accomplish, even in earlier times. Drawing upon an analysis of Canadian leaders who enjoyed great political longevity (Macdonald, Laurier, King, Trudeau, Chretien) in a new book – Dynasties and Interludes: Past and Present in Canadian Electoral Politics (Dundurn, 2010) – we examine the conditions and strategies that led to their success. Utilizing data from the National Election Studies and other sources, we then proceed in this paper to consider the prospects for a “Harper Dynasty.”
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.005 | 0.010 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.021 | 0.012 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.008 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".