Modeling the impact of hepatitis C viral clearance on end‐stage liver disease in an HIV co‐infected cohort with targeted maximum likelihood estimation
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Despite modern effective HIV treatment, hepatitis C virus (HCV) co-infection is associated with a high risk of progression to end-stage liver disease (ESLD) which has emerged as the primary cause of death in this population. Clinical interest lies in determining the impact of clearance of HCV on risk for ESLD. In this case study, we examine whether HCV clearance affects risk of ESLD using data from the multicenter Canadian Co-infection Cohort Study. Complications in this survival analysis arise from the time-dependent nature of the data, the presence of baseline confounders, loss to follow-up, and confounders that change over time, all of which can obscure the causal effect of interest. Additional challenges included non-censoring variable missingness and event sparsity. In order to efficiently estimate the ESLD-free survival probabilities under a specific history of HCV clearance, we demonstrate the double-robust and semiparametric efficient method of Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation (TMLE). Marginal structural models (MSM) can be used to model the effect of viral clearance (expressed as a hazard ratio) on ESLD-free survival and we demonstrate a way to estimate the parameters of a logistic model for the hazard function with TMLE. We show the theoretical derivation of the efficient influence curves for the parameters of two different MSMs and how they can be used to produce variance approximations for parameter estimates. Finally, the data analysis evaluating the impact of HCV on ESLD was undertaken using multiple imputations to account for the non-monotone missing data.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.013 | 0.030 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".