Ground Source Heat Pump Systems in Canada: Economics and GHG Reduction Potential
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Climate stabilization requires greenhouse gas reductions (GHG) in excess of 60 percent. Ground source heat pumps (GSHPs) hold the promise of meeting heating and cooling loads much more efficiently than conventional technologies. The economic viability of their widespread adoption depends on the costs of energy. Their impact on GHG reduction depends on fuel choices both in electricity generation and on customers’ premises. In this paper, we provide a systematic assessment of the GHG reduction potential across Canada of GSHPs and the economic cost of achieving this reduction. Using province-level data on household fuel choices and energy use, we find that GSHP systems offer significant GHG reductions, as well as savings in operation and maintenance costs. However, high capital costs continue to limit market diffusion. We conclude with a review of the geological suitability of the five largest urban centers in Canada for GSHP installation. This analysis shows GSHPs to hold significant potential for substantial GHG reductions in Canada at a cost savings relative to conventional alternatives, with time horizons as short as seven years.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".