Characteristics of the Trends in the Global Tropopause Estimated From COSMIC Radio Occultation Data
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper discusses the variabilities and trends in the global tropopause based on the gridded monthly mean Global Positioning System radio occultation data from the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) mission during July 2006–February 2014. We find that the tropopause height can reflect El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The correlation coefficient between global tropopause height anomalies and the Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature index is 0.53, with a maximum correlation coefficient of 0.8 at a lag of three months. We present first the detailed investigations about the spatial distribution of trends in tropopause parameters in each 10° <inline-formula xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <tex-math notation="LaTeX">$\times$</tex-math></inline-formula> 5° longitude–latitude grid cell over the globe and find that the rates of change in the tropopause parameters during this time period are high in some particular regions such as the Southern Indian Ocean, Antarctica, Western Europe, North Pacific, and the east coast of North America. An analysis of global monthly means of the tropopause parameters indicates a global tropopause height increase of 0.03 <inline-formula xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <tex-math notation="LaTeX">$\pm$</tex-math></inline-formula> 2.36 m/year during 2006–2014, with a corresponding temperature increase of 0.020 <inline-formula xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <tex-math notation="LaTeX">$\pm$</tex-math></inline-formula> 0.008 °C/year, and a pressure increase of 0.11 <inline-formula xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <tex-math notation="LaTeX">$\pm$</tex-math></inline-formula> 0.059 hPa/year. The upward trend of tropopause height is significantly weaker than that in the past years, which might be attributed to the expected stratospheric ozone recovery associated with the Montreal Protocol, the global warming slowdown, and the abnormal global climate change in recent years. The trends of the tropopause parameters are the most significant over the Southern Indian Ocean and Antarctica during September/October/November, which could be due to the stratospheric ozone recovery.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".