Analyzing the Potential Impact of Bird Migration on the Global Spread of H5N1 Avian Influenza (2007–2011) Using Spatiotemporal Mapping Methods
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Highly pathogenic avian influenza subtype H5N1 is a zoonotic, transboundary animal disease (TAD) and has caused an upmost concern for global health due to the severity of the influenza as a threat to human health. This study examines the spatial and temporal dynamics of H5N1 outbreaks with several mapping techniques in order to determine the role of global trading and bird migration processes in H5N1 outbreaks from 2007 to 2011. The most likely method of spread (wild, poultry, or wild then poultry) for each outbreak was determined and mapped by country. After identifying four epidemic waves throughout the study period, the potential pathways of H5N1 spread were mapped and several isolated outbreak clusters were identified as likely not being facilitated by bird migration. The results showed that spread by poultry trade has become less prevalent from 2007 to 2011. There are several limitations to mapping H5N1 spread and future studies should consider how multiple pathways can be mapped simultaneously and how individual outbreak characteristics can be used in conjunction with spatiotemporal characteristics between outbreaks to map potential H5N1 pathways.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".