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Record W1511353238

Natural Hazards: Some Pitfalls on the Path to a Neutral Interest Rate

2011· article· en· W1511353238 on OpenAlexaboutno aff
David Laidler

Bibliographic record

Venuenot available
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldSocial Sciences
TopicCanadian Policy and Governance
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsInterest rateInflation (cosmology)EconomicsReal interest rateMonetary economicsValue (mathematics)Raising (metalworking)Fisher hypothesisMonetary policyEngineering
DOInot available

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

The Bank of Canada currently expects the Canadian economy to return to full employment by the middle of next year, but is in no hurry to begin raising the overnight interest rate from its currently extremely low level towards the 3 percent plus range that normally has been associated with full employment. Some of the Bank’s critics have stressed that if inflation is to be kept stable after next year, then a “neutral” value for real – that is inflation-adjusted – market interest rates must be restored by then. The neutral interest rate’s value is hence extremely difficult to estimate, making other policy indicators highly relevant. Recent survey data on business intentions and expectations have shown more signs of expansion lately, but, along with still subdued rates of money growth, they do not as yet signal any imminent threat of an upsurge in long-term inflationary pressures in Canada, and these factors suggest that there might be something to be said for the Bank of Canada’s current caution towards raising interest rates.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.027
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.079
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: Theoretical or conceptual
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.506
Threshold uncertainty score0.981

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0270.079
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.001
Bibliometrics0.0020.001
Science and technology studies0.0070.023
Scholarly communication0.0090.008
Open science0.0040.003
Research integrity0.0110.026
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0070.001

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.052
GPT teacher head0.284
Teacher spread0.232 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designTheoretical or conceptual
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations17
Published2011
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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Same topicCanadian Policy and GovernanceFrench-language works237,207