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Record W1517951111

Oil Exporters to the Euro's Rescue?

2011· preprint· en· W1517951111 on OpenAlexaboutno aff
Philip K. Verleger

Bibliographic record

VenueRePEc: Research Papers in Economics · 2011
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldEnergy
TopicGlobal Energy and Sustainability Research
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsRecessionEconomicsBalance of tradeInternational economicsChinaBondEconomic recoveryEuropean unionEconomic policyBusinessInternational tradeEconomyFinanceGeographyMacroeconomics
DOInot available

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Energy-exporting countries have more at risk than any other participant in the world economy if the euro crisis plunges Europe into recession. These countries would likely experience greater losses in 2012 should Europe fail. Oil and natural gas prices would plummet, and the price collapse would likely be larger than the 2008–09 decline. Energy-exporting countries therefore should be working feverishly with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Union to rescue the euro. They, along with China and other large holders of foreign exchange reserves, should lend to the IMF to help it construct an emergency lending facility with capacity of more than €1 trillion. The fund, administered by the IMF, would be used to buy bonds issued by Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Ireland. The goal should be to bring interest rates on long-term bonds down to 3 percent. Simultaneously, efforts should be redoubled to fix the economic problems in the troubled nations and restore balance to their budgets. An energy price collapse would increase disruptions in energy-exporting countries, promote economic ills in some consuming nations, such as Canada, and almost certainly start yet a third, even more violent, economic cycle.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.005
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.051
Threshold uncertainty score0.171

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.005
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.001
Science and technology studies0.0010.001
Scholarly communication0.0040.005
Open science0.0000.001
Research integrity0.0020.002
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0510.006

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.038
GPT teacher head0.308
Teacher spread0.270 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2011
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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