Deciphering the evolution of birdwing butterflies 150 years after Alfred Russel Wallace
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
One hundred and fifty years after Alfred Wallace studied the geographical variation and species diversity of butterflies in the Indomalayan-Australasian Archipelago, the processes responsible for their biogeographical pattern remain equivocal. We analysed the macroevolutionary mechanisms accounting for the temporal and geographical diversification of the charismatic birdwing butterflies (Papilionidae), a major focus of Wallace's pioneering work. Bayesian phylogenetics and dating analyses of the birdwings were conducted using mitochondrial and nuclear genes. The combination of maximum likelihood analyses to estimate biogeographical history and diversification rates reveals that diversity-dependence processes drove the radiation of birdwings, and that speciation was often associated with founder-events colonizing new islands, especially in Wallacea. Palaeo-environment diversification models also suggest that high extinction rates occurred during periods of elevated sea level and global warming. We demonstrated a pattern of spatio-temporal habitat dynamics that continuously created or erased habitats suitable for birdwing biodiversity. Since birdwings were extinction-prone during the Miocene (warmer temperatures and elevated sea levels), the cooling period after the mid-Miocene climatic optimum fostered birdwing diversification due to the release of extinction. This also suggests that current global changes may represent a serious conservation threat to this flagship group.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it