Operational Forecasts of Maximum Hailstone Diameter in Mendoza, Argentina
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
A coupled one-dimensional cloud and hail growth model was used to simulate the growth of hailstones in Mendoza, Argentina. The model-derived maximum hail size forecasts were based on 118 representative soundings released during the 1999-2000 hail season. Model ensemble, persistence and subjective hail forecasts were also verified against daily observations of the maximum size. The model control and ensemble showed promising skill when forecasting the occurrence of hail as measured by the Heidke’s Skill Score (HSS=0.60). On days with severe hail (diameter of 2 cm or more), the model control forecasts showed the best skill (HSS=0.59). The model showed improved forecast skill when run using sounding and surface data from the Alberta Hail Project. This was likely attributable to the stringent criteria placed on the proximity soundings and the availability of real-time surface data in Alberta. Although certain cloud model parameters were useful for inferring the potential (and size) of hail in Mendoza, the best results were achieved using the coupled cloud and hail model. The data also suggest that the ensemble technique improves the accuracy and skill of the hail forecasts on some days.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it