Recent Expansion of <em>Spiranthes cernua</em> (Orchidaceae) into Northern Ontario due to Climate Change?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The expansion northward since 1980 of the native orchid Nodding Ladies'-tresses (Spiranthes cernua) in Ontario is described and assessed with respect to the possibility of the expansion being a recent response to climate change. Based on evidence of the extent of the orchid's distribution from prior botanical surveys, it is considered to be a recent arrival in a previously unoccupied area of northern Ontario. Second-order polynomial regression revealed a significant increase in mean yearly temperature of 1 Celsius degree in parts of northern Ontario since 1980. Based on close association with limits of yearly temperature, this is considered sufficient to explain the expansion, and the individual extensions of range fit well into the anticipated newly available territory. Based on a consideration of the location of extensions with respect to plant hardiness zones, the landscape that has become available since 1980 is 160 000 km2, in a band approximately 200 km wide across the southern part of northern Ontario. Assuming further temperature increases, this band is expected to expand to a width of approximately 300 km by 2040, providing 360 000 km2 of newly available landscape over six decades. Spiranthes cernua produces thousands of seeds per flower by adventitious embryony, allowing single individuals to establish populations through long-distance wind dispersal with no reliance on pollination. Spiranthes cernua is therefore well adapted to quickly colonize new territory that becomes available through climate warming.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".