Ignorant Mobs or Rational Actors? Understanding Support for Venezuela's “Bolivarian Revolution”
Bibliographic record
Abstract
THEORIES THAT ASSUME RATIONALITY IN HUMAN DECISION MAKING continue to be applied widely to understand political behavior. This body of theory posits that individuals act rationally to maximize their own interests, basing their actions (including political support) on an evaluation of costs and benefits. While rational action frameworks have been employed to understand the behavior of diverse sets of actors over the years, they have been unevenly engaged to study the support of poor, traditionally marginalized groups for charismatic leaders. Some scholars assume rationality on the part of subaltern actors by focusing on the material and political benefits provided to them by the leaders they endorse. Others implicitly or explicitly frame these subjects as irrational actors who blindly support populist leaders and their programs based on affective ties, manipulation, and raw emotion. The last-named tendency characterizes much of the media coverage on subaltern subjects in the Global South and thus dominates the public imagination.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.005 | 0.009 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.009 | 0.007 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.009 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".