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Record W1540558840 · doi:10.1111/cag.12197

Projecting a spatial shift of Ontario's sugar maple habitat in response to climate change: A GIS approach

2015· article· en· W1540558840 on OpenAlexafffundvenueabout
Laura J. Brown, Daniel Lamhonwah, Brenda Murphy

Bibliographic record

VenueCanadian Geographies / Géographies canadiennes · 2015
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEnvironmental Science
TopicSpecies Distribution and Climate Change
Canadian institutionsQueen's UniversityWilfrid Laurier University
FundersNatural Resources CanadaSocial Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada
KeywordsMapleClimate changeHabitatRange (aeronautics)PrecipitationEnvironmental scienceGeographyEcologyPhysical geographyEnvironmental changeEcosystemGlobal changeBiologyMeteorology

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Canada is the world's largest producer of maple syrup. Syrup production depends on weather and climatic conditions of the sugarbush. However, forest ecosystems are highly sensitive to climate change. The effect of rapidly changing precipitation and temperature patterns on tree species is of concern as these long‐lived organisms cannot quickly adapt to the new environmental conditions in which they find themselves. As temperatures increase it is expected that there will be a change in species' ranges poleward. This study uses Multi‐Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) and Geographic Information System (GIS) weighted sum analysis to project near future (2050) and distant future (2100) suitability maps of sugar maple (Acer saccharum) habitat in Ontario associated with three different Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) scenarios. Our maps project an overall decrease in the amount of suitable habitat within the current sugar maple range under the scenarios modelled, which intensifies in the later time period. Furthermore there is a projected shift in central and southern Ontario from a region dominated by suitable habitat to one dominated by unsuitable habitat.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.001
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.020
Threshold uncertainty score0.092

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.001
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.001
Bibliometrics0.0010.003
Science and technology studies0.0010.000
Scholarly communication0.0010.000
Open science0.0000.001
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0020.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.027
GPT teacher head0.220
Teacher spread0.193 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations9
Published2015
Admission routes4
Has abstractyes

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