Prospects of a Canada-US Customs Union: a Computable General Equilibrium Assessment
Bibliographic record
Abstract
A number of respected analysts and economic commentators in Canada have recently been calling for deeper economic integration with the USA. Most proponents of deepening economic integration favour the European progressive approach: a customs union, to be followed by a “single market†and eventually a full economic union. Evidently, the complexity of negotiating and implementing these arrangements increase from one step to the next. In this paper, we attempt to shed quantitative light in the simplest and perhaps most attainable scenario of closer integration, that of a basic customs union between the two countries. This involves harmonization of external tariffs towards the Rest of the World coupled with elimination of remaining tariff protection in bilateral trade between the two countries. Our methodology involves the development of a Computable General Equilibrium model where the representative consumer maximizes an inter-temporal utility function. The model and related data consists of three Canadian regions, The USA and the Rest of the World and nine economic sectors. The dynamic aspect of our model allows for a better interpretation of the adjustment process as well as capital accumulation and investment response to the proposed integration reform.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.010 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".