Bibliographic record
Abstract
High-stakes and large uncertainties characterize the science, policy and reality of climate change. A simple analysis of what appears to be most likely for the immediate future of Earth's climate system, including some probable human vulnerabilities, is presented below. In short, climate change is real. Further, numerous observations suggest the onset of a rapid phase transition between the familiar Holocene climatic mode and some future quasi-stable steady state. Such a climatic phase transition may extend from years to decades, presenting dramatic and unfamiliar challenges to ecological and societal organizations at all scales. Potential human hazards – particularly grave for food production – may catalyze dramatic societal changes. The profound uncertainty of abrupt climate change warrants careful reflection and prudent preparation, including assessment and enhancement of household, local and bioregional adaptive capacities. SOMMAIRE C'est l'importance des enjeux et des risques qui caracterise les efforts scientifiques, politiques ainsi que la realite des changements climatiques. On trouvera ci-dessous la description d'une simple analyse de ce qui semble etre le plus probable des scenarios sur l'avenir a court terme du systeme climatique de la Terre, dont certains aspects de la vulnerabilites pour les humains. En clair, le changement climatique est une realite. De plus, de nombreuses observations indiquent qu'une phase transitoire rapide serait en cours et que celle-ci nous menerait du mode climatique holocene qui nous est familier vers un autre etat d'equilibre quasi stable. Une telle phase transitoire peut s'etaler sur plusieurs annees, voire des decennies, et s'accompagner de defis inedits de diverses echelles, tant sur le plan ecologique que sur celui des organisations sociales humaines. Les risques humains potentiels, specialement ceux lies a la production de nourriture, pourraient entrainer des changements sociaux dramatiques. La gravite de l'incertitude liee au changement climatique abrupt appelle une reflexion minutieuse et des preparatifs consciencieux, dont l'evaluation et le renforcement de mecanismes d'adaptation, tant sur le plan domestique, local que regional.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.013 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.006 | 0.005 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.007 | 0.011 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Research integrity | 0.005 | 0.010 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.012 | 0.004 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".