Potential cost‐effectiveness of the nonavalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Randomized clinical trials are currently examining the efficacy of a nonavalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine, including HPV-types 6/11/16/18/31/33/45/52/58. Evidence on the cost-effectiveness of the nonavalent is required for timely policy-decisions. We compared the potential cost-effectiveness of the nonavalent and quadrivalent HPV vaccines. We used a multi-type individual-based transmission-dynamic model of HPV infection and diseases, 70-year time-horizon, 3% discount rate and healthcare payer perspective. We calibrated the model to Canadian sexual behavior and epidemiologic data, and estimated Quality-Adjusted Life-Years (QALYs) lost and costs ($CAN 2010) from the literature. Under base-case assumptions (vaccinating 10-year-old girls, 80% coverage, 95$/dose, vaccine-type efficacy = 95%, cross-protection for the quadrivalent vaccine, duration of vaccine-type protection (cross-protection) = 20 (10) years), using the quadrivalent and nonavalent vaccines is estimated to cost $15,528 [12,056; 19,140] and $12,203 [9,331; 17,292] per QALY-gained, respectively. At equal price, the nonavalent vaccine is more cost-effective than the quadrivalent vaccine, even when assuming both shorter duration of protection (nonavalent = 20 years vs. quadrivalent = lifelong) and lower vaccine-type efficacy (nonavalent = 85% vs. quadrivalent = 95%). However, the additional cost per dose of the nonavalent vaccine should not exceed $11 to remain more cost-effective than the quadrivalent vaccine, and $24 to represent a cost-effective alternative to the quadrivalent vaccine (using a $40,000/QALY-gained threshold). The nonavalent vaccine can be a cost-effective alternative to the quadrivalent vaccine, even in scenarios where nonavalent vaccine efficacy is 85%. However, because most cervical cancers are caused by HPV-16/18, it is unlikely that the nonavalent would be used if its efficacy against these types is lower than current HPV vaccines.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.011 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".