Voter Turnout in Manitoba: An Ecological Analysis
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This article treats Manitoba as a case study in the community-level factors influencing the rate of voter turnout. Combining data from Elections Manitoba and the Manitoba Bureau of Statistics, it consists of an ecological analysis of electoral participation among the province’s fifty-seven constituencies from 1999 to 2007. The study reveals that, while conventional variables like age and affluence play a role, the competitiveness of the constituency is by far the most important factor in determining a district’s rate of voter turnout. This finding required analysts to shift their focus to “competitiveness” as the dependent variable, which, in turn, revealed that the best predictor of a district’s competitiveness was how close the race was in the previous election. The centrality of competitiveness to voter turnout in Manitoba raises important challenges for election officials and reform advocates, as it adds a dynamic, contextual variable that is difficult to manipulate.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it