Long-lead forecasting of precipitation and wheat yields in Saskatchewan using teleconnection indices
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Teleconnections among the central, east equatorial Pacific, the Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern, and Southern Oscillation (SO) and monthly precipitation, monthly temperature, and spring wheat yields in Saskatchewan are examined. When sea surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific are warmer than the air temperatures (strong El Niño) there is an upward flux of water vapour into the atmosphere, convection, heat released by condensation, a strengthening of the westerlies and a vitalization of the Hadley circulation. When sea surface temperatures are colder than the air temperatures (strong La Niña) in the central equatorial Pacific it produces the opposite influence on atmospheric processes. Composite analysis reveals that El Niño and La Niña are the primary modulators of the Pacific/North American pattern and movement of surface cyclones across the western continent. Correlation and composite analyses indicate that between 1950 and 1998 warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the central and east equatorial Pacific during the winter and early spring (El Niño) are associated with cooler and wetter conditions during the May through July period in Saskatchewan and higher wheat yields. Conversely cooler than normal sea surface temperatures in the central and east equatorial Pacific during the winter and early spring (La Niña) are associated with hotter and drier conditions during the May through July period in Saskatchewan and lower wheat yields. The relationship appears to be strongest for the Brown soil zone and weakest for the Black soil zone in Saskatchewan.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".