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Record W1556748410 · doi:10.5539/ass.v11n15p275

The Preliminary Study of Climate Change Impact on Rice Production and Economic in Thailand

2015· article· en· W1556748410 on OpenAlexvenueno aff
Noppol Arunrat, Nathsuda Pumijumnong

Bibliographic record

VenueAsian Social Science · 2015
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldAgricultural and Biological Sciences
TopicClimate change impacts on agriculture
Canadian institutionsnot available
FundersThailand Research Fund
KeywordsProduction (economics)Agricultural economicsEconomic shortageConsumption (sociology)EconomicsClimate changePopulationNatural resource economicsAgricultural scienceEnvironmental scienceBusiness

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Climate change affects crop production in two ways: changes in GDP and population and changes in climatevariables, especially temperature and precipitation. This study aims to investigate preliminary effects of climatechange impacts on Thailand’s rice production, consumption, and export capacity by integrated EPIC model andthe world and Thai rice market models. Therefore, the Biophysical process model (EPIC model) and Economicprocesses model are employed as the research methodology of this study. Main findings of the comparisonshowed both rice production and export in the base year (2007) are likely to expand until 2027, and there will bea sufficient amount of rice surplus for export, which is nearly the same level as that of domestic consumption inA2 scenario. In 2017, the amount of rice production will be only slightly higher than the domestic demand,leaving a small rice surplus of up to 2 million tons for export, compared to 14 million tons in 2016. However, inB2 scenario, the rice production capacity will be much lower than the domestic demand, meeting only half of itin 2017. From 2017 to 2019, the rice production capacity will undergo a constant fall and no longer meet themarket demand as a result; it is estimated that there will be a shortage of approximately 0.038 to 0.218 ton. It istherefore important to note that if B2 scenario became reality in 2017, the rice production capacity of Thailandwould nearly fail to meet the minimum level of domestic demand. However, we assure that Thailand still haveland where can be converted to rice production with multiple cropping through irrigation investment, whilecomprehensive technical adaptation and mitigation to enhance farmer benefits are required.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.616
Threshold uncertainty score0.277

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.059
GPT teacher head0.303
Teacher spread0.245 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations27
Published2015
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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