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Record W1561230659

Forest fire occurrence prediction in Slovenia using GIS technology

2013· article· en· W1561230659 on OpenAlex
Tomaž Šturm

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

aboutThe title or abstract carries a Canadian signal from the geographic lexicon.
no affNo Canadian affiliation: this work is invisible to an affiliation-only frame.
No Canadian affiliation. An affiliation-only frame, the usual design, would never have seen this work. It is one of the works that make the case for inverting the frame.

Bibliographic record

VenueRepozitorij Univerze v Ljubljani (Univerze v Lgubljani) · 2013
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEnvironmental Science
TopicFire effects on ecosystems
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsDeciduousGeographyEnvironmental scienceForestryPhysical geographyEcology
DOInot available

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

The thesis discusses forest fire occurrence in the Karst forest management region in the period from 1995 to 2009. Data analysis has shown that fire occurrence has two season peaks which are highly associated with human activities in the natural environment (land cultivation, railway). Therefore fire mostly starts in unwooded areas, from where the wind spreads it into the woods. Most frequently it occurs in deciduous forests, and the largest burnt areas occur in coniferous forests. The kernel density showed that lightning fires most frequently occur in the northern part of the region, where hills rise above the surrounding landscape. Forest fire occurrence is impacted by people, tree composition and terrain, which coincides with the findings of authors who explore forest fires in different natural environments. Fire is a natural process with its own rules that does not change regardless of where it occurs. To predict the incidence of forest fire on the basis of weather variables we used the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System (CFFWIS), which is applied in Europe within the European Fire Forest Index System (EFFIS). Its performance has not been thoroughly assessed, especially in environments less prone to fire, but this has been done herein. Five fire danger classes (very high, high, moderate low and very low) were derived from percentile analysis of the CFFWIS Fire Weather Index. We established that these classes are related to former forest fire occurrence. Predicting the day when the forest fire might occur was done more precisely with the classification tree than with the logistic regression. Fire activity is more related to current weather conditions than to drought. Our findings stress the applicability of CFFWIS in forest fire protection, and simultaneously suggest limitations related to a small number of fires and a small study area. On the basis of data on forest stands, we created the forest fire occurrence probability model with the ordinary least squares method (OLS) and geographically weighted regression (GWR). Higher quality model was obtained with geographically weighted regression which showed which characteristics of forest stands influence forest fire occurrence and in what way. The GWR model has also shown that in addition to characteristics of forest stands we also need other data (railway). A combination of spatial statistical methods on the characteristics of forest stands has allowed detailed insight into forest fire occurrence and its characteristics. One of the duties of predicting forest fire danger is also predicting forest fire behaviour, which, in addition to weather data and topography, also requires a fuel model. We examined forest databases and established that they do not contain all data needed for calculating fuel model parameters. However, they do contain data on forest stands (forest stand maps), which can be applied to the spatial display of the fuel model (fuelbed). This serves as the basis for further studies in
\nthe area of predicting forest fire behaviour. We established that usefulness of forest stand maps overcome their original purpose of collecting and preparing for forest management purposes. Their real significance will become clear only in the coming years as crucial information on forests and forest area, which provides a starting point for monitoring various habitat types and species, and environmental protection.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMeta-epidemiology (narrow), Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesInsufficient payload (model declined to judge)
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.514
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0010.001
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.004
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.003
Open science0.0010.001
Research integrity0.0010.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0020.002

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.006
GPT teacher head0.188
Teacher spread0.182 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it