Amplitude and frequency of temperature extremes over the North Atlantic region
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Recent studies on extreme events have focused on the potential change of their intensity during the 20th century, but their frequency evolution has often been overlooked although its socio‐economic impact is equally important. This paper focuses on extreme events of high and low temperatures and their amplitude and frequency changes over the last 60 years in the North Atlantic (NA) region. We analyze the temporal evolution of the amplitude and frequency of extreme events through the parameters of an extreme value distribution applied to NCEP reanalysis for the winter and summer seasons. We examine the relation of the statistics of extremes with greenhouse gas forcing and an atmospheric circulation index and obtain a spatial distribution of the trends of those extreme parameters. We find that the frequency of warm extremes increases over most of the NA while their magnitude does not vary as systematically. Apart from the Labrador Sea and parts of Scandinavia, the features of winter cold extremes exhibit decreasing or no trends.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".