A Hybrid Pareto Model for Conditional Density Estimation of Asymmetric Fat-Tail Data
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We propose an estimator for the conditional density p(Y |X) that can adapt for asymmetric heavy tails which might depend on X. Such estimators have important applications in nance and insurance. We draw from Extreme Value Theory the tools to build a hybrid unimodal density having a parameter controlling the heaviness of the upper tail. This hybrid is a Gaussian whose upper tail has been replaced by a generalized Pareto tail. We use this hybrid in a multi-modal mixture in order to obtain a nonparametric density estimator that can easily adapt for heavy tailed data. To obtain a conditional density estimator, the parameters of the mixture estimator can be seen as functions of X and these functions learned. We show experimentally that this approach better models the conditional density in terms of likelihood than compared competing algorithms: conditional mixture models with other types of components and multivariate nonparametric models. 1
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".