Variations in middle atmospheric water vapor from 2004 to 2013
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract We show measurements of middle atmospheric water vapor as measured by two ground‐based Water Vapor Millimeter‐wave Spectrometer instruments and three satellite‐based instruments: the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder, the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment (ACE), and the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS). We also show CH 4 measurements from the MIPAS and ACE instruments and use these to help interpret the H 2 O variations. We find that interannual changes in stratospheric H 2 O of ~0.5 ppmv, observed from Table Mountain, California, at 26 km and 40 km from 2010 to 2012, are caused primarily by dynamically driven changes in CH 4 during this period. The interannual variations in H 2 O observed over Mauna Loa, Hawaii, are shown to be quite similar to the average variations observed over 50°S–50°N in the lower mesosphere; thus, we conclude that a single ground‐based microwave instrument can provide a useful estimate of interannual globally averaged lower mesospheric H 2 O variations, even when such changes are as small as ~0.2–0.3 ppmv. We find that the increase of ~0.2–0.3 ppmv in H 2 O in the lower mesosphere since 2006 is qualitatively consistent with an increase in tropical tropopause temperature since around 2001.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.028 | 0.009 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".