Modelling the genetics and demography of step cline formation: gastropod populations preyed on by experimentally introduced crabs
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Whether a prey population goes extinct or adapts in response to an invading predator may depend on the number of contiguous populations that experience increased predation. We created invaded snail populations by building shelters for predatory shore crabs on a rocky intertidal bench. The crabs preyed selectively on thin-shelled snails tethered next to the shelters but did not prey on those more than 2 m away. This caused strong directional selection for increased shell thickness in populations close to the shelters but did not change selection in those farther away. The field experiment was used to parameterize a new individual-based quantitative genetic model that included demography. In the model a detectable step cline in shell thickness evolved rapidly even though the region of increased predation was shorter than Slatkin's characteristic length. The cline's step size in the model was similar to that measured in the field 10 years after the experiment began.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".