Did geomagnetic activity challenge electric power reliability during solar cycle 23? Evidence from the PJM regional transmission organization in North America
Bibliographic record
Abstract
During solar cycle 22, a very intense geomagnetic storm on 13 March 1989 contributed to the collapse of the Hydro‐Quebec power system in Canada. This event clearly demonstrated that geomagnetic storms have the potential to lead to blackouts. This paper addresses whether geomagnetic activity challenged power system reliability during solar cycle 23. Operations by PJM Interconnection, LLC (hereafter PJM), a regional transmission organization in North America, are examined over the period 1 April 2002 through 30 April 2004. During this time PJM coordinated the movement of wholesale electricity in all or parts of Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia, and the District of Columbia in the United States. We examine the relationship between a proxy of geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) and a metric of challenged reliability. In this study, GICs are proxied using magnetometer data from a geomagnetic observatory located just outside the PJM control area. The metric of challenged reliability is the incidence of out‐of‐economic‐merit order dispatching due to adverse reactive power conditions. The statistical methods employed make it possible to disentangle the effects of GICs on power system operations from purely terrestrial factors. The results of the analysis indicate that geomagnetic activity can significantly increase the likelihood that the system operator will dispatch generating units based on system stability considerations rather than economic merit.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".