Bibliographic record
Abstract
It is a source of real gratification that Anna Schwartz's and my book should be deemed worthy of a retrospective after 40 years. The extensive research of the past 40 years plus the additional 40 years of history certainly require many modifications in detail in the story as we told it. However, I believe that our major themes have held up remarkably well. The most controversial of those--our attribution to the Federal Reserve of a major share of the responsibility for the 1929-33 contraction--has become almost conventional wisdom. Money does matter. The Fed's Performance In an April 15, 1988, Wall Street Journal op-ed, I wrote, No major institution in the U.S. has so poor a record of performance over so long a period as the Federal Reserve, yet so high a public recognition. That conclusion was, I believe, amply justified by our book and experience in the quarter century after its publication. Fortunately, as I wrote in a Wall Street Journal op-ed of August 19, 2003 (The Fed's Thermostat), it no longer is. Since the mid-1980s, central banks around the world have reacted to the mounting evidence of monetary research by accepting the view that their basic responsibility is to produce price stability. More important, they have succeeded to a remarkable extent as they have discovered that, far from there being a tradeoff between price stability and economic stability, they are mutually supporting. The variability of prices is less by an order of magnitude since the mid-1980s than it was before, not only in the United States, but also in New Zealand (the first country to adopt an explicit inflation target), Great Britain, Euroland, Japan, and elsewhere. Their success in controlling inflation has altered the empirical relation between short-term movements in money and in nominal income. Achieving price stability requires offsetting changes in velocity by opposite changes in the quantity of money, which reduces sharply the correlation between short-term movements in money and short-term movements in nominal income. To put it differently, short-term changes in the quantity of money can no longer be regarded as largely exogenous. They have become largely endogenous. If the central banks continue to be successful in curbing price fluctuations, they will have converted the quantity of money from an unruly master to an obedient servant. The generalization that long-term changes in the quantity of money are reflected primarily in prices and little if at all in real output remains valid. The Role of France Reading the English translation of the memoirs of Emile Moreau (Governor of the Bank of France, 1926-28) persuaded me that we understated the role of France in the international transmission of the contraction. …
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.014 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.009 | 0.017 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.015 | 0.015 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Research integrity | 0.006 | 0.014 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.016 | 0.003 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".