Notice bibliographique
Résumé
It is a source of real gratification that Anna Schwartz's and my book should be deemed worthy of a retrospective after 40 years. The extensive research of the past 40 years plus the additional 40 years of history certainly require many modifications in detail in the story as we told it. However, I believe that our major themes have held up remarkably well. The most controversial of those--our attribution to the Federal Reserve of a major share of the responsibility for the 1929-33 contraction--has become almost conventional wisdom. Money does matter. The Fed's Performance In an April 15, 1988, Wall Street Journal op-ed, I wrote, No major institution in the U.S. has so poor a record of performance over so long a period as the Federal Reserve, yet so high a public recognition. That conclusion was, I believe, amply justified by our book and experience in the quarter century after its publication. Fortunately, as I wrote in a Wall Street Journal op-ed of August 19, 2003 (The Fed's Thermostat), it no longer is. Since the mid-1980s, central banks around the world have reacted to the mounting evidence of monetary research by accepting the view that their basic responsibility is to produce price stability. More important, they have succeeded to a remarkable extent as they have discovered that, far from there being a tradeoff between price stability and economic stability, they are mutually supporting. The variability of prices is less by an order of magnitude since the mid-1980s than it was before, not only in the United States, but also in New Zealand (the first country to adopt an explicit inflation target), Great Britain, Euroland, Japan, and elsewhere. Their success in controlling inflation has altered the empirical relation between short-term movements in money and in nominal income. Achieving price stability requires offsetting changes in velocity by opposite changes in the quantity of money, which reduces sharply the correlation between short-term movements in money and short-term movements in nominal income. To put it differently, short-term changes in the quantity of money can no longer be regarded as largely exogenous. They have become largely endogenous. If the central banks continue to be successful in curbing price fluctuations, they will have converted the quantity of money from an unruly master to an obedient servant. The generalization that long-term changes in the quantity of money are reflected primarily in prices and little if at all in real output remains valid. The Role of France Reading the English translation of the memoirs of Emile Moreau (Governor of the Bank of France, 1926-28) persuaded me that we understated the role of France in the international transmission of the contraction. …
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction machine sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.
Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,004 | 0,014 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,003 | 0,003 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,009 | 0,017 |
| Communication savante | 0,015 | 0,015 |
| Science ouverte | 0,002 | 0,005 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,006 | 0,014 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,016 | 0,003 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».