Mexico's Long-Term Energy Outlook: Results of a Detailed Energy Supply And Demand Simulation
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper presents the results of a detailed, bottom-up analysis of Mexico's energy markets. A team of U.S, and Mexican analysts used the Energy and Power Evaluation Program (ENPEP) to develop energy market forecasts to the year 2025, Primary energy supply is projected to grow from 9,313 petajoules (Pl) in 1999 to 13,130 Pl by 2025, Mexico's crude oil production is expected to increase by 1% annually to 8,230 Pl in 2025. As its domestic crude refining capacity becomes unable to meet the rising demand for petroleum products, resulting from such factors as the country's rapidly growing transportation needs, imports of oil products will become increasingly important. Gasoline imports, for example, are expected to increase 12-fold, The Mexican natural gas markets are driven by the strong demand for gas in the power generating and manufacturing industries.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it