What Has Happened to Quebecers' Marginal Effective Tax Rates?
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
More than a decade after Quebec and the federal government implemented significant personal income tax rate reductions, what has happened to Quebecers’ take-home pay? This paper answers the question by looking at marginal effective tax rates (METRs) on personal income, which measure the impact of federal and provincial income taxes combined with the impact of reductions and clawbacks of income-tested tax credits and benefits. Income-tested credits and benefits mostly target financial support to low-to-middle income families with children and to low-income seniors. However, clawbacks and rate reductions apply to those credits and benefits as incomes rise above set thresholds, raising METRs for those income groups and family types. Overall, METRs are lower than a decade ago, but for many low-to-middle income Quebec families with children, they are higher. The province’s residents generally face the highest tax rates in the country, with an average METR in 2011 exceeding the national average by four percentage points.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it