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Record W1584341831

Business Cycle Turnaround Not Yet in Sight

2001· article· en· W1584341831 on OpenAlexaboutno aff
Ewald Walterskirchen

Bibliographic record

VenueWIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports) · 2001
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEconomics, Econometrics and Finance
TopicGerman Economic Analysis & Policies
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsQuarter (Canadian coin)Business cycleUnemploymentInvestment (military)RecessionShock (circulatory)EconomicsUnemployment rateBusinessLabour economicsDemographic economicsEconomic growthGeographyMacroeconomicsPolitical science
DOInot available

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

The dampening impact on exports and investment from the international business cycle slowdown is being exacerbated in Austria by a fall in construction output. As a result, the labour market situation has deteriorated significantly. The regular WIFO business surveys do not as yet give rise to hopes for an imminent business cycle turnaround. Industrial confidence has weakened further until November. Incoming orders, current activity and production expectations are all being seen less favourable by firms than in the previous months. The terrorist attacks have come as a shock to the world economy, and their consequences will further delay the recovery. Exports until last summer held up relatively well against the global downturn. Latest available data for July and August show a nominal advance by 4½ percent year-on-year. A further weakening should, however, be expected for the fourth quarter, due to the 11 September events. Manufacturing net output in the second and third quarter was barely higher than a year ago. Still more unfavourable is the situation in the construction industry: in July and August, building and civil engineering output fell by an average 3 percent in value year-on-year, and by over 4 percent in volume. Particularly sharp was the fall by a nominal 10 percent in residential construction, while publicly-ordered construction also declined. The cyclical weakness has led to a significant deterioration on the labour market. The year-on-year gain in employment has narrowed to a meagre 3, 000 or 0.1 percent by November. The rate of unemployment as measured by the labour exchange rose by 0.9 percentage points from the year-earlier level; the seasonally adjusted figure stood at 6.3 percent in November. The deceleration of inflation should be facilitated by weaker activity. Yet, in October, the rate of inflation remained unchanged at 2.6 percent, as the effect of lower energy prices was offset by price increases for food and various other items, such as the newly-introduced student fees in higher education.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.003
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.011
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Not applicable · Consensus signal: Not applicable
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.052
Threshold uncertainty score0.174

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0030.011
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.001
Bibliometrics0.0010.002
Science and technology studies0.0020.001
Scholarly communication0.0090.005
Open science0.0010.002
Research integrity0.0030.005
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0520.023

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.021
GPT teacher head0.208
Teacher spread0.187 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designNot applicable
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2001
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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