Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper seeks to determine how demographic and non-demographic factors have contributed to past changes in Canada’s real housing prices as well as their possible impact over the next twenty years. To this goal, we estimate with annual data from 1956 to1997 a structural model of the Canadian housing market. This model possesses two important long-run properties, that is, the longrun supply curve is perfectly elastic while real housing price is cointegrated with real per-capita income. These two conditions imply that housing price shows a tendency to return to a stable longrun growth path dictated by the trend growth rate in real income. Although real income has been the dominant factor behind the fluctuations in the real asset price of housing since 1956, the growth rate of the population between 25 and 54 years of age has also played an important role. In the future, even if aging will continue to be a negative factor on housing demand, the continuation of past trends in real income is likely to be sufficient to counterbalance this negative impact. Consequently, real housing prices should continue to rise over the next twenty years, with possible exceptions in the Atlantic provinces and in Manitoba which will suffer a more substantial population decline.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".