The Limits to Wage Growth: Measuring the Growth Rate of Wages For Recent Welfare Leavers
Bibliographic record
Abstract
A key question for understanding the long-run impact of welfare reform policies is whether welfare leavers can anticipate rapid wage growth, or whether their labor market opportunities will improve only modestly over time (see, e.g., the review by Gottschalk, 2000.) This concern is especially relevant for reforms targeted at long-term recipients, who often lack the skills to obtain higher-wage jobs when they first re-enter the labor market. The Self Sufficiency Program (SSP), an experimental welfare reform begun in the mid-1990s in two Canadian provinces, offers a striking illustration of the issues. SSP provides an earnings subsidy for up to three years to long-term recipients who leave welfare and enter full-time work. The subsidy reduces welfare participation and raises employment: within15 months, the employment rate of single mothers who are offered the supplement is 10-15 percentage points higher than the rate of a randomly-assigned control group (Lin et al, 1998). Nevertheless, the wages associated
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.009 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".