The Intertemporal Substitution and Income Effects of a VAT Rate Increase: Evidence from Japan
Bibliographic record
Abstract
One of the biggest political issues in Japan is an increase in the rate of value added tax (VAT). In this paper, we evaluate its impact on household expenditure, using Japan’s April 1997 VAT rate increase from three to five percent as a case study. A rate increase induces price hikes, and provided this increase in price levels is anticipated, households should engage in intertemporal substitution of purchases. In addition, if households are not compensated for the rate increase, it has the potential to induce an income effects on household consumption. Based on monthly household expenditure data, we find that households spent ¥30,231 more in the quarter prior to the rate increase than they would have in its absence, while the income effect was negligible. Consistent with theoretical predictions, increased outlays on durable and storable non-durable goods and services were responsible for roughly three-quarters of the observed intertemporal substitution effects. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we find that the VAT rate increase had no impact on real household spending following its implementation, once we have accounted for intertemporal substitution, which caused a large transitory disturbance in household expenditures.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".