Regulation of atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> by deep‐sea sediments in an Earth system model
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
We have extended the GENIE‐1 Earth system model to include a representation of sedimentary stratigraphy and the preservation of biogenic carbonates delivered to the ocean floor. This has enabled us to take a novel approach in diagnosing modern marine carbon cycling: assimilating observation of the calcium carbonate (CaCO 3 ) content of deep‐sea sediments with an ensemble Kalman filter. The resulting calibrated model predicts a mean surface sediment content (32.5 wt%) close to the observed value (34.8 wt%), and a global burial rate of CaCO 3 in deep sea sediments of 0.121 PgC yr −1 , in line with recent budget estimates of 0.10−0.14 PgC yr −1 . We employ the GENIE‐1 model in quantifying the multimillennial‐scale fate of fossil fuel CO 2 emitted to the atmosphere. In the absence of any interaction between ocean and sediments, an equilibrium partitioning of CO 2 is reached within ∼1000 years of emissions ceasing, with 34% (645 ppm) remaining in the atmosphere out of a total fossil fuel burn of 4173 PgC. An additional 12% of CO 2 emissions (223 ppm) are sequestered as bicarbonate ions (HCO 3 − ) by reaction with deep‐sea carbonates (“seafloor CaCO 3 neutralization”) on a timescale of ∼1.7 ka. Excess of carbonate weathering on land over deep‐sea burial results in a further net transformation of 14% of CO 2 emissions (261 ppm) into HCO 3 − (“terrestrial CaCO 3 neutralization”) on a timescale of ∼8.3 ka. We have also assessed the importance of a changing climate in modulating the stabilization of atmospheric CO 2 through ocean‐sediment interaction. Increased ocean stratification suppresses particulate organic carbon export, which in turn enhances seafloor CaCO 3 preservation. The resulting reduction in the sequestration of fossil fuel CO 2 represents a new positive feedback on millennial‐scale climate change.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it