Algorithms for Finding Copulas Minimizing Convex Functions of Sums
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
In this paper, we develop improved rearrangement algorithms to find the dependence structure that minimizes a convex function of the sum of dependent variables with given margins. We propose a new multivariate dependence measure, which can assess the convergence of the rearrangement algorithms and can be used as a stopping rule. We show how to apply these algorithms for example to finding the dependence among variables for which the marginal distributions and the distribution of the sum or the difference are known. As an example, we can find the dependence between two uniformly distributed variables that makes the distribution of the sum of two uniform variables indistinguishable from a normal distribution. Using MCMC techniques, we design an algorithm that converges to the global optimum.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it