Performing incremental Bayesian inference by dynamic model counting
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
The ability to update the structure of a Bayesian network when new data becomes available is crucial for building adaptive systems. Recent work by Sang, Beame, and Kautz (AAAI 2005) demonstrates that the well-known Davis-Putnam procedure combined with a dynamic decomposition and caching technique is an effective method for exact inference in Bayesian networks with high density and width. In this paper, we define dynamic model counting and extend the dynamic decomposition and caching technique to multiple runs on a series of problems with similar structure. This allows us to perform Bayesian inference incrementally as the structure of the network changes. Experimental results show that our approach yields significant improvements over the previous model counting approaches on multiple challenging Bayesian network instances.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it