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Record W1600151010

Signs of Cyclical Recovery Becoming More Frequent

2002· article· en· W1600151010 on OpenAlexaboutno aff
Ewald Walterskirchen

Bibliographic record

VenueWIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports) · 2002
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEconomics, Econometrics and Finance
TopicGerman Economic Analysis & Policies
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsBusiness cycleRecessionEconomic indicatorIndex (typography)Economic recoveryQuarter (Canadian coin)Industrial production indexEconomicsPurchasingBusinessEconomic policyEconomyProduction (economics)Operations managementMacroeconomicsGeography
DOInot available

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

For the second month in a row, the regular WIFO business survey is pointing to a recovery in the Austrian manufacturing sector. This is consistent with an upturn in leading indicators in the USA and the EU. Still, no relief is as yet in sight for the construction sector and the labour market. According to forward-looking indicators, a business cycle turnaround may be imminent. In the USA, the purchasing managers index jumped in February, while in Germany the ifo index for the business climate has been trending up for the last couple of months. For the euro area, the GDP indicator developed by a group of European economic research institutes (Euroframe) suggests rates of growth of 1.4 and 2.0 percent, respectively, for the first and the second quarter. The main drivers of the rebound are declines in interest rates and oil prices as well as improved expectations in the USA and in Europe. At this early stage, negative shocks may jeopardise a still fragile recovery. If, however, the positive expectations are confirmed, Europe has managed to avoid a recession. In Austria also, the economy has probably reached the trough of the cycle. Business sentiment has improved for the second consecutive month in February. In particular, expectations for the near future have turned more optimistic. Incoming orders, the business outlook and production expectations have been given better ratings by industrial firms than over the last months. In the construction sector, sentiment has stabilised in civil engineering, brought about partly by the stimulus programmes launched by the federal and the state governments. No upturn is yet visible for building activity, notably for new-home building. Data on exports and production only go as far as the end of last year. As could be expected, they show declines, thereby confirming earlier survey data. On the labour market, no turnaround is as yet discernible. The cyclical slowdown and the crisis in the construction industry have worsened the situation, leaving more negative marks on the jobless than on the employment data: while unemployment rose by 38, 700 year-on-year in February, employment went down by 7, 300 over the same period. The difference is explained by the sizeable increase in labour supply, due inter alia to a net inflow of foreign workers and the rise in the statutory early retirement age. Contrary to expectations held in some quarters, inflation has not been boosted by the introduction of euro notes and coins early this year. Abstracting from price increases for seasonal goods (fruits, vegetables), consumer prices edged down from December. Apparently, dual price advertising, price surveillance and competitive pressure have all had a positive effect in this regard. With inflation having gained momentum in other western European countries, the Austrian rate is now clearly below the average for the euro area.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMeta-epidemiology (narrow), Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.519
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.001
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0030.001

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.043
GPT teacher head0.219
Teacher spread0.176 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2002
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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