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Chaos, complexity and complicatedness: lessons from rocket science

2011· article· en· W1601175173 on OpenAlexaff
Geoff Norman

Bibliographic record

VenueMedical Education · 2011
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldComputer Science
TopicChaos, Complexity, and Education
Canadian institutionsMcMaster University
Fundersnot available
KeywordsParallelsChaos theoryArgument (complex analysis)Complex systemChaoticNatural (archaeology)EpistemologyComputer scienceSystems sciencePoint (geometry)Science educationCHAOS (operating system)Management scienceChaotic systemsCognitive scienceArtificial intelligencePsychologyMathematicsMathematics educationPhilosophyEconomics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

CONTEXT: Recently several authors have drawn parallels between educational research and some theories of natural science, in particular complexity theory and chaos theory. The central claim is that both the natural science theories are useful metaphors for education research in that they deal with phenomena that involve many variables interacting in complex, non-linear and unstable ways, and leading to effects that are neither reproducible nor comprehensible. METHODS: This paper presents a counter-argument. I begin by carefully examining the concepts of uncertainty, complexity and chaos, as described in physical science. I distinguish carefully between systems that are, respectively, complex, chaotic and complicated. I demonstrate that complex and chaotic systems have highly specific characteristics that are unlikely to be present in education systems. I then suggest that, in fact, there is ample evidence that human learning can be understood adequately with conventional linear models. CONCLUSIONS: The implications of these opposing world views are substantial. If education science has the properties of complex or chaotic systems, we should abandon any attempt at control or understanding. However, as I point out, to do so would ignore a number of recent developments in our understanding of learning that hold promise to yield substantial improvements in effectiveness and efficiency of learning.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.002
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.006
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: Theoretical or conceptual
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.004
Threshold uncertainty score0.014

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0020.006
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.001
Science and technology studies0.0010.014
Scholarly communication0.0030.006
Open science0.0010.003
Research integrity0.0020.005
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0030.001

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.119
GPT teacher head0.352
Teacher spread0.233 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designTheoretical or conceptual
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations38
Published2011
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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