Phylogeographic insights into an irruptive pest outbreak
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Irruptive forest insect pests cause considerable ecological and economic damage, and their outbreaks have been increasing in frequency and severity. We use a phylogeographic approach to understand the location and progression of an outbreak by the MPB (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins), an irruptive bark beetle that has caused unprecedented damage to lodgepole pine forests in western North America and is poised to expand its range across the boreal forest. We sampled MPB populations across British Columbia and Alberta and used phylogeographic methods to describe lineage diversification, characterize population structure, investigate expansion dynamics, and identify source populations of the outbreak. Using 1181 bp of mitochondrial DNA sequence from 267 individuals, we found high haplotype diversity, low nucleotide diversity, and limited lineage diversification. The overall pattern was consistent with isolation by distance at a continental scale, and with reduced diversity and population structure in the northerly, outbreak regions. Post-Pleistocene expansion was detected, however more recent expansion signals were not detected, potentially due to the size and rapid rate of range expansion. Based on the limited genetic structure, there were likely multiple source populations in southern British Columbia, although the magnitude of the demographic expansion and rate of spread have obscured the signature of these source populations. Our data highlight the need for caution in interpreting phylogeographic results for species with similar demographics.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".