Climate and Environmental Change in Arctic Canada: Observations from Upper and Lower Murray Lakes, Ellesmere Island, Nunavut
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This study was designed with the overriding goal of improving our understanding of the nature, causes, and impacts of past climatic conditions in the High Arctic and to evaluate the potential impacts of future climatic warming. Specifically, the focus of this project was centered on Upper and Lower Murray Lakes (81° 21' N, 69° 32' W) on northern Ellesmere Island, Nunavut, Canada. Sediment cores were collected from each of the lakes in order to reconstruct past climate and environmental variability and space-borne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data were used to evaluate recent variability in the ice cover of these lakes. The climatic setting and physical characteristics of Lower Murray Lake has led to the formation and preservation of annually laminated sediments (varves). Varve deposition began ca. 5200 calendar years BP and continued through 2004 AD, providing an annual record of sediment accumulation spanning the past 5200+ years. Annual mass accumulation was correlated to regional July temperatures providing a means of quantitatively evaluating past temperature changes in the region. The temperature reconstruction suggests that recent temperatures are ∼2.6°C higher than minimum temperatures observed during the Little Ice Age, maximum temperatures during the past 5200 years exceeded modern values by ∼0.6°C, and that minimum temperatures observed approximately 2900 varve years BC were ∼3.5°C colder than recent conditions. SAR observations of the ice cover Upper and Lower Murray Lake were used to assess the potential effects of past and future temperatures on lake-ice conditions. Under current climatic conditions the lakes average several weeks of ice-free conditions in August and early September, although in some years a continuous ice cover persists throughout the year. The relationship between summer temperature and ice melt at the lakes suggests that recent warming in the High Arctic has forced the lakes across a threshold from a state of perennial ice cover to seasonal melting. Projected future warming will significantly increase the duration of ice free conditions on Upper and Lower Murray Lakes. Ice-out is predicted to occur between 6 and 28 days earlier for every 1°C of warming.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".