Runoff to boreal lakes linked to land cover, watershed morphology and permafrost thaw: a 9‐year isotope mass balance assessment
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen were measured in water samples collected annually from a representative suite of 50 lakes in northeastern Alberta over a 9‐year period and are interpreted using a steady‐state isotope mass balance model to determine water yield and runoff ratios for the lake watersheds and residence time of the lakes. This isotopic perspective on hydrology of the region provides new insight into the role of land cover, watershed morphometry, climatic drivers and permafrost thaw on lakes. Bog cover, permafrost and presence of thaw features in bogs are found to be the dominant hydrologic drivers, although morphometric properties such as elevation, lake area and drainage basin area are also influential. In addition to quantifying the hydrologic fluxes, the analysis establishes contrasting conditions in more southerly lakes, located in the Stony Mountains and west of Fort McMurray, as compared with more northerly sites in the Birch Mountains, Caribou Mountains and northeast of Fort McMurray, mainly because of contributions from thawing permafrost at the northerly sites. Distinct hydrologic conditions are also noted for Shield systems north of Lake Athabasca where bogs and permafrost are absent. While permafrost thaw is not directly labelled by oxygen and hydrogen isotope composition, isotope mass balance calculations suggest that contributions of up to several hundred millimetres per year are occurring in 14 of the 50 lake watersheds under study. Several of these lakes have water yields in excess of precipitation in some years, and regional groups of lakes display significant correlations between water yield and percentage of bogs that have collapsed. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it