An Operational Model of Iceberg Drift
Bibliographic record
Abstract
A new iceberg drift, deterioration and calving model has been under development at the Canadian Ice Service (CIS). The model includes several new features including the utilization of detailed environmental forcing input, and a robust implicit numerical solution method. In particular, the vertical distribution of water current is incorporated in calculations of water drag force on the iceberg keel. The model is also the first to include treatment of calving, prediction of calved ice piece size distribution and deterioration, as well as the drift of calved pieces. This paper gives a description of the drift model formulation, and verification tests that include comparisons of model predictions with field observations. Additionally, the paper presents the outcome of a parametric study aimed at examining the sensitivity of iceberg drift to input parameters and environmental forcing. Tests examined the role of water and air drag coefficients, water current, wind waves and the waterline length of the iceberg. A number of scenarios of input water current, and wind drag force were also considered. The results determine the impact of the input parameters and variables on predicted iceberg tracks.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.013 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".