A factorial analysis of the marine carbon cycle and ocean circulation controls on atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub>
Bibliographic record
Abstract
A factorial experiment with a new Earth system model of intermediate complexity is used to assess the sensitivity of atmospheric CO 2 to organic, carbonate and solubility pumps, ocean circulation state, and climate feedback. An analysis of variance of the results reveals that the organic, carbonate, and solubility pumps act multiplicatively and account for 94% of the variance of atmospheric CO 2 . The organic pump explains 63% (89 ppm), the solubility pump 24% (55 ppm), the carbonate pump 6% (28 ppm), and ocean circulation 0.3% (12 ppm) of the variance. Removing all pumps increases atmospheric CO 2 from 278 to 525 ppm. Including interactions with all the pumps increases the effects of ocean circulation from 12 to 56 ppm. However, the ocean circulation states used are unlikely to span the full range of possible states. Changes in Pacific circulation have more effect on atmospheric CO 2 than Atlantic circulation.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".