A factorial analysis of the marine carbon cycle and ocean circulation controls on atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub>
Bibliographic record
Abstract
A factorial experiment with a new Earth system model of intermediate complexity is used to assess the sensitivity of atmospheric CO2 to organic, carbonate and solubility pumps, ocean circulation state, and climate feedback. An analysis of variance of the results reveals that the organic, carbonate, and solubility pumps act multiplicatively and account for 94% of the variance of atmospheric CO2. The organic pump explains 63% (89 ppm), the solubility pump 24% (55 ppm), the carbonate pump 6% (28 ppm), and ocean circulation 0.3% (12 ppm) of the variance. Removing all pumps increases atmospheric CO2 from 278 to 525 ppm. Including interactions with all the pumps increases the effects of ocean circulation from 12 to 56 ppm. However, the ocean circulation states used are unlikely to span the full range of possible states. Changes in Pacific circulation have more effect on atmospheric CO2 than Atlantic circulation.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".