Deep-water turbidites as Holocene earthquake proxies: the Cascadia subduction zone and Northern San Andreas Fault systems
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
New stratigraphic evidence from the Cascadia margin demonstrates that 13 earthquakes ruptured the margin from Vancouver Island to at least the California border following the catastrophic eruption of Mount Mazama. These 13 events have occurred with an average repeat time of ?? 600 years since the first post-Mazama event ?? 7500 years ago. The youngest event ?? 300 years ago probably coincides with widespread evidence of coastal subsidence and tsunami inundation in buried marshes along the Cascadia coast. We can extend the Holocene record to at least 9850 years, during which 18 events correlate along the same region. The pattern of repeat times is consistent with the pattern observed at most (but not all) localities onshore, strengthening the contention that both were produced by plate-wide earthquakes. We also observe that the sequence of Holocene events in Cascadia may contain a repeating pattern, a tantalizing look at what may be the long-term behavior of a major fault system. Over the last ?? 7500 years, the pattern appears to have repeated at least three times, with the most recent A.D. 1700 event being the third of three events following a long interval of 845 years between events T4 and T5. This long interval is one that is also recognized in many of the coastal records, and may serve as an anchor point between the offshore and onshore records. Similar stratigraphic records are found in two piston cores and one box core from Noyo Channel, adjacent to the Northern San Andreas Fault, which show a cyclic record of turbidite beds, with thirty- one turbidite beds above a Holocene/.Pleistocene faunal «datum». Thus far, we have determined ages for 20 events including the uppermost 5 events from these cores. The uppermost event returns a «modern» age, which we interpret is likely the 1906 San Andreas earthquake. The penultimate event returns an intercept age of A.D. 1664 (2 ?? range 1505- 1822). The third event and fourth event are lumped together, as there is no hemipelagic sediment between them. The age of this event is A.D. 1524 (1445-1664), though we are not certain whether this event represents one event or two. The fifth event age is A.D. 1204 (1057-1319), and the sixth event age is A.D. 1049 (981-1188). These results are in relatively good agreement with the onshore work to date, which indicates an age for the penultimate event in the mid-1600 s, the most likely age for the third event of ?? 1500-1600, and a fourth event ?? 1300. We presently do not have the spatial sampling needed to test for synchroneity of events along the Northern San Andreas, and thus cannot determine with confidence that the observed turbidite record is earthquake generated. However, the good agreement in number of events between the onshore and offshore records suggests that, as in Cascadia, turbidite triggers other than earthquakes appear not to have added significantly to the turbidite record along the northernmost San Andreas margin during the last ?? 2000 years.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
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Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it