Explaining Alberta’s rising mesothelioma rates
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Although mesothelioma rates have been rising worldwide, little is known about mesothelioma trends in Alberta. This population-based descriptive study used Alberta Cancer Board Registry data from 1980 to 2004 to develop an age-period-cohort model of male pleural mesothelioma incidence rates over time. Both age and cohort effects are associated with incidence rates. The highest-risk cohort comprised men born between 1930 and 1939, reflecting widespread asbestos use and exposure beginning in the 1940s in Canada. We predict that 1393 Albertan men 40 years and older will die of pleural mesothelioma between 1980 and 2024; 783 (56.2%) of these deaths will occur between 2010 and 2024. The total number of mesothelioma deaths in Alberta will be higher when all age groups, both sexes, and all disease sites are included, with numbers likely peaking sometime between 2015 and 2019. In addition to the ongoing efforts that focus on eliminating asbestos-related disease in Alberta, the challenge is to implement surveillance systems to prevent future epidemics of preventable occupational cancers in Alberta.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".