Modeling evidence for enhanced El Niño–Southern Oscillation amplitude during the Last Glacial Maximum
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We present a numerical eigenmode analysis of an intermediate El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) model which is driven by present‐day observed background conditions as well as by simulated background conditions for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) about 21,000 years ago. The background conditions are obtained from two LGM simulations which were performed with the National Center for Atmospheric Research climate system model (CSM1.4) and an Earth system model of intermediate complexity (ECBilt‐CLIO). Our analysis clearly shows that the leading present‐day unstable recharge‐discharge mode changes its stability as well as its frequency during LGM conditions. Simulated LGM background conditions were favorable to support large‐amplitude self‐sustained interannual ENSO variations in the tropical Pacific. Our analysis indicates that off‐equatorial climate conditions as well as a shoaling of the thermocline play a crucial role in amplifying the LGM ENSO mode.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".