Ice growth in the greenhouse: A seductive paradox but unrealistic scenario
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The recent IPCC (2001) assessment stated that Most models show weakening of Northern Hemisphere Thermohaline Circulation (THC), which contributes to a reduction of surface warming in northern North Atlantic. Even in models where THC weakens, there is still a warming over Europe due to increased greenhouse gases. However, there is still a widespread misunderstanding of possible consequence of climate change on Atlantic Ocean Meridional Overturning. In particular, it is often touted, especially in media, that a possible consequence of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is: the onset of next ice age. Here we document history of this misconception and quantitatively show how it is impossible for an ice age to ensue as a consequence of global warming. Through analysis of paleoclimate record as well as a number of climate model simulations, we also suggest that it is very unlikely that Atlantic Meridional Overturning will cease to be active in near future. We further suggest that a region where intermediate water formation may shut down is in Labrador Sea, although this has more minor consequences for climate than if deep water formation in Nordic Seas were to cease. RESUME Lors d'une evaluation recente (2001) du GIEC on a ecrit « La plupart des modeles montrent l'existence d'un affaiblissement de la circulation thermohaline (CTH) dans l'hemisphere Nord, ce qui contribue a une reduction du rechauffement de surface de la region nord de l'Atlantique Nord. Et meme dans les modeles montrant un affaiblissement de la CTH, il y a quand meme rechauffement de la zone europeenne a cause de l'augmentation des gaz a effet de serre. » Cependant, beaucoup d'incomprehension subsiste quant aux possibles consequences d'un changement climatique decoulant de ce retournement dans la portion meridionale de l'ocean Atlantique. En particulier, on entend souvent, specialement dans les medias, que l'une des consequence possible des emissions de gaz a effet de serres anthropogeniques serait « le declenchement d'un âge glaciaire ». Dans le present article, nous presentons l'historique de cette meprise et demontrons qu'il est impossible qu'un âge glaciaire soit provoque par le rechauffement de l'atmosphere de la planete. Aussi, par l'analyse des archives paleoclimatiques et l'etude de nombreux modeles de simulation climatique, nous suggerons qu'il est tres improbable quele retournement en cours dans la portion meridionale de l'Atlantique Nord, cesse dans un avenir rapproche. Nous proposons aussi que la mer du Labrador est une region ou la formation d'eaux intermediaires pourrait s'arreter, bien que les consequences climatiques soient bien moindres que s'il s'agissait des eaux profondes de la mer du Nord.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".