Discussant remarks on Filipa Sá, Pascal Towbin and Tomasz Wieladek’s paper "Capital inflows,financial innovation and housing booms"
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Since the global financial crisis of 2007–09, economists and policymakers have struggled to understand the causes of asset price booms and busts. The challenge is illustrated in Figure 1, which shows the path of real property prices from 2000 through 2010 for seven advanced economies (Austria, Canada, Denmark, Ireland, Norway, the United Kingdom and the United States). One question is why property prices in all seven of these countries (and many more besides) all rose and fell over roughly the same period. Was a common factor at work across countries, and if so, what was it? The second question is why the size of the boom differed across countries. What explains the fact that house prices doubled in the United Kingdom, but appreciated only slightly in Austria?
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.015 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.005 | 0.006 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.007 | 0.008 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.026 | 0.008 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".