NM-MT network and space dangerous phenomena, 1. Principles of major geomagnetic storms forecasting

According to NOAA Space Weather Scales, geomagnetic storms of scales G5 (3-hour index of geomagnetic activity Kp=9), G4 (Kp=8) and G3 (Kp=7) are dangerous for satellites, aircrafts, and even for technology on the ground (influence on power systems, on spacecraft operations, on HF radio-communications and others). We show on the basis of great statistical data that these geomagnetic storms mostly accompanied with cosmic ray (CR) Forbush-decreases are dangerous also for people health on spacecrafts and on the ground (increasing of daily rate of myocardial infarcts, brain strokes and car accident road traumas). To prevent these serious damages will be very important to forecast dangerous geomagnetic storms. Here we consider principles of CR using for this aim: to forecast at least 10-15 hours before sudden commencement (SC) of great geomagnetic storms accompanied with Forbush-decreases by using neutron monitor (NM) – muon telescope (MT) world-wide network on-line hourly data. We show that for this forecast may be used following features of CR intensity variations connected with geomagnetic storms accompanied with Forbush-decreases: 1) CR pre-increase, 2) CR pre-decrease, 3) CR fluctuations, 4) Change in 3-D CR anisotropy. This research is partly supported by the EU INTAS grant 0810. ON THE INFLUENCE OF GEOMAGNETIC STORMS ACCOMPANIED WITH CR FORBUSHDECREASES ON PEOPLE HEALTH AND TECHNOLOGY. There are numerous indications that natural, solar variability-driven time variations of the Earth's magnetic field can be hazardous in relation to health and safety. There are two lines of their possible influence: effects on physical systems and on human beings as biological systems. High frequency radio communications are disrupted, electric power distribution grids are blacked out when geomagnetic induced currents cause safety devices to trip, and atmospheric warming causes increased drag on satellites. An example of a major disruption on high technology operations by magnetic variations of large extent occurred in March 1989, when an intense geomagnetic storm upset communication systems, orbiting satellites, and electric power systems around the world. Several large power transformers also failed in Canada and United States, and there were hundreds of misoperations of relays and protective systems (Kappenman and Albertson, 1990; Hruska and Shea, 1993). Some evidence has been also reported on the association between geomagnetic disturbances and increases in work and traffic accidents (Ptitsyna et al. 1998 and refs. therein). These studies were based on the hypothesis that a significant part of traffic accidents could be caused by the incorrect or retarded reaction of drivers to the traffic circumstances, the capability to react correctly being influenced by the environmental magnetic and electric fields. The analysis of accidents caused by human factors in the biggest atomic station of former USSR, Kurskaya, during 1985-1989, showed that ~70% of these accidents happened in the days of geomagnetic storms. In Reiter (1954, 1955) it was found that work and traffic accidents in Germany were associated with disturbances in atmospheric electricity and in geomagnetic field (defined by sudden perturbations in radio wave propagation). On the basis of 25 reaction tests, it was found also that the human reaction time, during these disturbed periods, was considerably retarded. Retarded reaction in connection with naturally occurred magnetic field disturbances was observed also by Koenig and Ankermueller (1982). Moreover, a number of investigations showed significant correlation between the incidence of clinically important pathologies and strong geomagnetic field variations. The most significant results have been those on cardiovascular and nervous system diseases, showing some association with geomagnetic activity; a number of laboratory results on correlation between human blood system and solar and geomagnetic activity supported these findings (Ptitsyna et al. 1998 and refs. therein). Recently, the monitoring of cardiovascular function among cosmonauts of “MIR” space station revealed a reduction of heart rate variability during geomagnetic storms (Baevsky et al. 1997); the reduction in heart rate variability has been associated with 550% increase in the risk of coronary artery diseases (Baevsky et al. 1997 and refs. therein). On the basis of statistical data on several millions medical events in Moscow and in St. Petersburg were found an sufficient influence of geomagnetic storms accompanied with CR Forbush-decreases on the frequency of myocardial infarcts, brain strokes and car accident road traumas (Villoresi et al., 1994, 1995). Earlier we found that among all characteristics of geomagnetic activity, Forbush decreases are better related to hazardous effects of solar variabilitydriven disturbances of the geomagnetic field (Ptitsyna et al. 1998). Fig. 1 shows the correlation between cardiovascular diseases, car accidents and different characteristics of geomagnetic activity (planetary index AA, major geomagnetic storms MGS, sudden commencement of geomagnetic storm SSC, occurrence of downward vertical component of the interplanetary magnetic field Bz and also CR intensity decreasing phase of Forbush decreases (FD)). Fig.1. Myocardial infarction (a), brain stroke (b) and road accident (c) incidence rates per day during geomagnetic quiet and perturbed days according to different indexes of activity. The most remarkable and statistically significant effects have been observed during days of geomagnetic perturbations defined by the days of the declining phase of Forbush decreases in CR intensity. During these days the average numbers of traffic accidents, infarctions, and brain strokes increase by (17.4±3.1)%, (10.5±1.2)% and (7.0±1.7)% respectively. In Fig. 2 we show the effect on pathology rates during the time development of FD. All FD have been divided into two groups, according to the time duration T of the FD decreasing phase. Then, the average incidence of infarctions and traffic accidents was computed beginning from one day before the FD-onset till 5 days after. For the first group (T<1 day) the average daily incidence of infarctions and traffic incidence increases only in the first day of FD; no effect is observed during the recovery phase (that usually lasts for several days). Also for the second group (1 day<T<2 days) the increase in incidence rates is observed only during the 2-days period of the decreasing phase of FD. In Table 1 are shown NOAA scale of geomagnetic storms influence on power systems, on spacecraft operations, and on other systems (greatest three types, mostly accompanied with Forbush-decreases). We expect that for these three types of geomagnetic storms can be useful on-line one-hour CR data of neutron monitors and muon telescopes for on-line forecasting (at least before 15-20 hours of SSC). In Table 1 we added some preliminary information on possible biological effects according to our results discussed above (see Fig-s. 1 and 2). Fig 2. Infarction (full squares) and road accidents (full triangles) incidence during the time development of FD: (a) CR decrease phase T<1 day; (b) CR decrease phase 1 day<T<2 days. With horizontal lines are shown averages values for days without FD. Table 1. The extended NOAA scale of geomagnetic storms influence on people health, power systems, on spacecraft operations, and on other systems (greatest three types, mostly accompanied with Forbush-decreases); in the original NOAA scale we include biological effects according to results discussed above. Geomagnetic Storms Effects Number per solar cycle

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